Photo – AFP
This Political Economy Tracker No. 2 (English Version) was published on November 21, 2025, as a translation of the original Burmese version published on November 20, 2025.
The Rising Myanmar–China Trade Reporting Discrepancy*
▪️Period
April 2018 to December 2024
▪️Regions
Myanmar and China
▪️Issues
The annual trade reporting discrepancy between Myanmar and China has continued to widen, exceeding a total of USD 63 billion over nearly seven years. More than USD 45 billion of this gap has emerged following the 2021 coup.
▪️Groups Involved
The State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC), Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), People’s Militia Forces, Border Guard Forces, and various stakeholders of China.
▪️Status/Development
The discrepancy has grown sharply in the post-coup period—rising from USD 8.7 billion in fiscal year 2020–21 to USD 16.8 billion in fiscal year 2022–23 (see ISP-DM2025-195). This surge reflects worsening border instability, the expansion of illegal mining and rare earth exports, the growing territorial control of EAOs, and repeated blockades and disruptions along key trade routes. These conditions have enabled a rapid rise in informal trade.
▪️Implications
The widening gap shows Myanmar’s shadow economy growing, and eroding the formal one. The public bore the costs through higher commodity prices, inflation, and supply instability. At the same time, unchecked natural resource extraction and smuggling activities are driving social and environmental harm. With armed groups tightening their hold over key stretches of the Myanmar–China frontier, and with no meaningful negotiations to formalise trade, the discrepancy is likely to continue rising.
ISP Political Economy Tracker
Rising Trade Reporting Discrepancy
Reference
(*)“Trade reporting discrepancy” refers to the gap between Myanmar’s and China’s annual reported trade figures, based on data published separately by the SSPC’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs of China (GACC).