AA’s Pursuit of Junta Arms Plants Looks Uncertain

As the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) scales back operations in northern Shan, it has intensified its campaign in the west, where the Arakan Army (AA) is facing sustained pressure along the Rakhine coast. Although the AA may attempt to seize the junta’s Defense Industry (KaPaSa) factories, holding such facilities would be difficult under current conditions.

By ISP Admin | December 2, 2025

Photo – AFP

This Stakeholder Tracker No. 4 (English Version) was published on December 2, 2025, as a translation of the original Burmese version published on December 1, 2025.

▪️Period

January to November 2025.

▪️Stakeholders

Arakan Army (AA) and its allied forces, and State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC).

▪️Issues/activity

In the third week of October 2025, the AA and joint forces seized Point 666 Hill, located in the western Bago Region and only about 16 miles away from Oakshitpin Town, where the SSPC’s No. 6 Defense Industry factory (KaPaSa-6) is located. Additionally, the offensive by the AA and its allied forces has reached within approximately 17 miles of Padan town in Magway Region, where KaPaSa-14 is located.

▪️Status/trends

The AA and its allied forces are extending their front lines in the Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady regions, which border Rakhine State. Within the Magway and Bago regions, there are 16 Defense Industry factories located on the west bank of the Irrawaddy River. The AA, in cooperation with other alliance forces, is attempting to establish a foothold in areas adjacent to Rakhine State. Currently, the SSPC has not yet fully regained control of the areas captured by the AA. However, the SSPC is leveraging the ceasefire in Northern Shan State to intensify its military operations in AA-controlled regions.

▪️Implications

The SSPC, observing a ceasefire in Northern Shan State, is increasing reinforcements and airstrikes in AA-controlled areas. For the AA, capturing the defense factories remains uncertain for several reasons: the junta has intensified operations in Rakhine; the AA is still fighting in the coastal front; and even if it managed to seize the plants, maintaining control afterward would be challenging. By maintaining a military standoff, they will likely only be able to disrupt the operations of the Defense Industry factories.

▪️Relevance

As noted in ISP On Point No. 26, the AA, together with its “less talk, more action” allies, is mounting offensives to expand its territorial reach beyond Rakhine State. Examining these joint operations outside Rakhine offers a way to gauge how the Chinese-mediated ceasefire in northern Shan State is shaping the AA’s strategy of building an “allied wall” and extending its buffer zone.